The last few years have hardly spun any surprises. Mercedes and Lotus improved slightly, McLaren and Williams had a shocker last year, but apart from that it was a pretty standard year. Red Bulls at the front, Marussias and Caterhams at the back. Straight forward.
BUT F1 giant (metaphorically speaking of course) 'Lil Bernie Ecclestone threw a curveball into this year's rules and regulations. Here are some:
- Drivers have permanent numbers for commercial reasons.
- There is a fuel limit of 100kg, down from 150kg
- The 2.4L V8's have been replaced with 1.6L turbo engines.
- The "ugly" noses are now only 15cm long.
- And finally, the last race is, bizarrely, worth double points.
This has made the title race more open than it has been in years - probably since Keke Rosberg (father of current driver, Nico) won the 1982 Championship. Of course, this is a good thing for F1, if we forget about the ludicrous double points race at Abu Dhabi. If you are not a Red Bull fan like myself, you can get bored of seeing the greatest domination of the sport since Michael Schumacher's 5 in a row in the earlier 2000s.
Anyway, how did pre-season testing look? Williams looked like a different team who could really push for race wins, Mercedes looked almost unstoppable and Lotus looked shaky. But what was worst of all?
The reliability issues with the Red Bull.
Vettel didn't get a time in the third test, despite the fairly promising look of the car. I say "fairly" because it still looked competitive, but no longer with that blistering pace of the past three years. They needed a miracle after being one of the worst teams in testing.
They didn't quite get that miracle in the first two practices, but they done all right. Both Ricciardo and Vettel finished inside the top eight in the first practice and top six in the second. Caterham had a miserable time over the two practices as they failed to set any times. Maldonado of Lotus was the same, with team mate Romain Grosjean only finishing 18 out of 22 in Practice 2. Marussia seem to be sitting in the same position as last year, but they may be a bit closer than before.
Moving up the field, middle-of-the-grid cars Force India, Toro Rosso and Sauber failed to make any impact with 10th being the highest any of the three cars placed in practices. Then the two most improved teams: McLaren and especially, Williams. As I have said before, both teams had an awful 2013, but McLaren were consistent, with both of their cars finishing inside the top ten on both occasions. Williams were blazing in Practice 1 finishing third and fourth. Their second practice wasn't as strong as they finished 8th and 12th, but the car could easily do what Lotus did last year.
I've already mentioned Red Bull in the elite cars, so let's talk about Ferrari and Mercedes. First, Ferrari enjoyed Practice 1 when Alonso came out top of the pile, but Raikonnen was a disappointment in ninth. Practice 2 was encouraging as they finished third and seventh respectively. Mercedes were looked a little shaky in first practice as Rosberg was sixth and Hamilton failed to put down a time, but in Practice 2 they hammered the opposition finishing in a one-two, led by Hamilton.
From what we've seen in practice, not a lot will change over a season, but this season that could well happen. The likes of Red Bull, Sauber and Lotus last year were hugely impressive in the second half of the season and with double points in the last race, this could benefit slow starters who upgrade their car well. For a good bit of fun, I will predict the Drivers' Championship as well as the Constructors:
Constructors
1 Mercedes
2 Red Bull
3 Ferrari
4 Williams
5 McLaren
6 Sauber
7 Force India
8 Toro Rosso
9 Lotus
10 Marussia
11 Caterham
Why Mercedes? They are strong already, Hamilton and Rosberg have worked together already and are both experienced. Vettel and Ricciardo however, have not. We are still to see if Ricciardo can get the most out of the car due to his lack of experience in a faster car. Ferrari seem to have the same speed as Red Bull, but I doubt they will be able to develop their car as well as RB, plus Alonso and Raikkonen may be a bad pairing. It could easily go well, but if they are sniffing around at the title it may get heated.
Williams I feel will just squeeze McLaren, but that's the romantic in me talking. The other big surprise there is Lotus in ninth. I feel that they're already in a bad financial position and this won't be a good year from them after some poor testing and practices. I mean, if they have a stroke of luck they could go as high as sixth, but I don't think that they can do any better than that.
Drivers
1 Vettel
2 Hamilton
3 Alonso
4 Raikkonen
5 Rosberg
6 Ricciardo
7 Massa
8 Button
9 Magnussen
10 Bottas
11 Hulkenberg
12 Perez
13 Sutil
14 Grosjean
15 Vergne
16 Gutierrez
17 Kvyat
18 Maldonado
19 Bianchi
20 Kobayashi
21 Chilton
22 Ericsson
Right start at the bottom. Chilton and Ericsson are very young, I think that Kobayashi - a risk taker - will beat the two of them. Bianchi will finish ahead as he is a quality driver who deserves recognition. Maldonado is an all-talk driver who won't make an impact, only backed by money. I think Kvyat will struggle with his team mate Vergne not being far away as he really lacks that X Factor in a driver. Gutierrez looks like he may struggle again with the current car, which doesn't seem to be doing much. Grosjean is a brilliant driver - as we saw in the second half of 2013 - but a limited car may well set him back. Sutil will finish behind the Force Indias, who should stay ahead because of two quality drivers - especially Hulkenberg who may struggle to catch the Williams and McLarens in his average car.
Into the top ten. Bottas is a decent driver with a good car this year, but I think he'll struggle with the quality of the other drivers, including Magnussen who may or may not have a good car this year. The Dane is driven, but may be limited by his car, only to be beaten by Button due to his experience and ability in a McLaren. Massa looks like a born-again driver after his last few races and if the Williams is quick, he will be too.
Ricciardo may struggle to get into the top five and who can blame him? Four of my predicted top five are world champions with the exception being Nico Rosberg who I think will also be outdone by the four world champions. Then come the Ferrari pair. Alonso will beat Raikkonen just because Fernando is the best driver in the field, plus Kimi can be a little inconsistent. Top two - Hamilton will be defeated by Vettel for many reasons: Vettel is a better driver who can battle through a field (as seen a few times last year); Vettel seems more driven towards a title without taking anything away from Hamilton; and Red Bull's car will be the best in the second half. Last year, Mercedes looked the strongest and we all seen how that ended up.
Overall, this is going to be an exciting year and I can bet that of my predictions I guess eight drivers positions and four constructors positions correctly because it is just that unpredictable.
Here's to another year of great Formula One. Lights out.
